Friday, June 29, 2007

Coming to month#2

FED decided to leave rates unchanged. Looks like Yen crosses starting to move up especially cad/jpy which propelled from 114.20 to low 117s, well oil price did go up last night and usd/cad had a breakout from its weekly ranging level.

A couple US data out later today, guess i'll wait for next week. On to month #2

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Damn connection

Yen crosses went up today since dropping 3 days ago. Is phase II here? i dont know, so ill wait. Closed all open positions and my internet is screwing up on me.

FOMC results up later at 0215. I just wanna see how that turns out.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Little strokes,fell big oaks

I went in short on gbp/jpy on monday only to be stopped on a vicious rebound. Took another trade again on tuesday and closed 1 position for some profits. As for my remaining usd/jpy, decided to close it at 123.90 for some profits, went down now trading at 122.49. Most yen crosses are going down at the moment but still looking for a direction and i felt taking the short trade on monday was too early. This is ok as im testing my theory and slowly piecing together, and Phase I is now underway, lets see how it turns out until end of the week and for Phase II take shape next week.

Cable still hovering 2.0000 last few days and now have dropped to 1.9940, im off gbp/usd at the moment till further movements occur. Still have to work on equity, down but still alright. Recovering bit by bit as opportunity comes.

Result: +300pips

Friday, June 22, 2007

Look at the beast go!

After a weaker than expected report was released slumped 40pips within first 3 mins settling at 114.90, The Loonie came back up to 115.70 area. Cable again testing 1.9950 resistance, will it continue its hike to 2.0000?

As for the beast, this monster stomped every single resistance level and now trading at 247.80. I like trading/watching this pair but a fearful aura clouds me all the time even when my entry signals appear. Have to be cautious with the beast as this 'thing' is known to catch traders off guard. It got me early this month....*ouch*

Slow friday today and did not make any trades. Just that one of my 2 usd/jpy trades hit limit at 124.10, im loving the rollovers. :)

Result: +93pips

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

The Loonie

Cable made good runs last 3 days and wiped 1.9900 resistance after MPC minutes. Will it make it back to 2.0000? The beast however continued its way up to 246.50!! only made 1 trade, gbp/usd but position was triggered late and got a price at 1.9923(set at 1.9910) only to find myself in an uncomfortable situation to clear 9920 level, ended up 9940 till NY closes, and fell back to 9904 during asian session. Was stopped out at breakeven point. Ok didnt lose money.

Canadian retail sales report out later, so today im going to give cad/jpy another try, if the number comes out stronger. Long at 115.70, SL 115.38, Tp 116.30(prev high), hopefully no more blackouts today, it did again last night! twice!

Report came out weaker than expected, trade cancelled.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Sidelined again

Did not open any new trades. Still following progress on the beast. UK news out soon, see how it turns out. Spent most of the time reading and plotting next move. Saw potential trade in CAD/JPY currently trading 115.38 to 115.43 area, long term uptrend, this pair hikes up then flats out. Canada CPI came out lower but indicated a strong move up, i like news trade, actually ive been waiting for this moment doing additional reading and drew an action plan. As the market was digesting figures, *tick* power went out. Entire neighbourhood was down, kinda depressed, poured in alot of work and effort into planning. Turns out it spiked up, returned to current price then ended up at 116.02. Abt 50pips.

It's alright, i slept it off and got over it. Always another trade opportunity, thats what i keep telling myslef last 2 weeks. On with the journey!

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Another bad week

Another rough week, couldnt find good entry points and only made 6 trades. Loss 5/6. Bad run for this week. The beast came back up and hit 244 level but closed high 243, and i once again find myself on the sidelines. Well, i still have alot to learn, hopefully still have enough funds in my account till i get it right. Gotta keep my mind focused.

Result: -90pips

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Heading back for repairs

The beast heading back up to 241-ish from its recent drop to 237.65 last week. As for me, not holding any positions this week. This will be 2nd week of my real trading, account not looking too good. Down but not out. As soon i tighten up a few bolts, i'll be right back in action.

Taking this opportunity for some time-off thinking what had gone wrong with the me/plan, devising an action plan and understand it further. Also to get some much needed rest. Will be out fr 2 days, some job in Sepang.

Monday, June 11, 2007

The beast slumbers

Price didnt change that much, bounced 239.40/239.00 level. Retraced to fib 38.2% and went sideways, I'm no pro looks like a consolidation. Until it stirs, i shall remain neutral.

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Hang on to your knickers

Didnt have much time to write cause was too busy hanging on to my balls. The plan was to trade on gbp/jpy this week. Da plan, take a ride to 245 then head south. Gbp/usd didnt excite me too much, looks flat on my chart. It went as planned till tuesday. Every single trade i took was stopped and was thinking im not goin against its trend? which part of the plan i didnt follow? well, not every single plan is perfect and i sense something funky is goin on here. Losses were more than i can take for a day. Rather than losing more money i decided to turn off PC, not to trade, do something else.

Article came out on thursday, "Yen reversal - confirmed", hmmm. Also,news on BoE price hike. Read more articles, visit few forums then came up with a plan for today. Will long if uk data turns out upside then short(still on original plan) OR short if downside data. I like these technical analysts, they like using big words.

"Furthermore, if we see a combination of unchanged rates in the UK along with a sustained bout of Japanese yen strength, GBPJPY could break support, resulting in precipitous declines towards 239.00."

Precipitous, howd i pronounce that. Yeah i dont read much except for technical manuals and gametexts. Good thing theres dictionary.com. Damn, stopped out of eur/usd after news "N.Korea missile fired", a boost for usd. 2nd time ive seen this....

News time, rates were unchanged. It went down and hard. So i waited for my order to trigger.Took trade when it went below 4hr trend channel. It found support at 240.50, sigh, that was my entry point! price battling up and down, still hanging on and confident of the strong downtrend. It finally broke support and continued downwards. Alert came out "uptrend broken", the beast continues its rampage, rip and tear every single support level, what a monster. Good thing im not against it. Abt 400pips movement. settled down to 238.90(last i checked), from day high of 242.22, hit my target and exit. Managed to recover most of this week's loss. Phew!

One thing i experienced from the beast, i would want to get on its good side and never go against it. Ok, did not go as high as 245.00 but from 243.03 it did drop.
Things i learn this week:-
1. Survive first
2. Not everything goes according to plan
3. Gotta keep my cool, not do stupid mistakes when a trade goes bad.

Now, whatll i do next? 3 more weeks until end of month, still much to learn, alot more catching up and work to do. Quite a rough week.

Result: -200pips

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Patience required here

Waiting on the right price to enter gbp/jpy trade again. UK data should be out in 30 mins time.

Update: Went in too early as pair went down near 3rd support level. But rebounded. That was some nerve wrecking experience. Had i waited 1-2 hours more id fetch a much better price. As usual, my timing was off.

Monday, June 4, 2007

Still hanging

Just looking for long trades for gbp/jpy, while keeping previous trade(long@241.20) 30min,1hr,4hr chart looks like its on rising trend and already at overbought levels. Will be on lookout for another entry.

Result: +160pips

Friday, June 1, 2007

Month #3 - June

Closed existing trade, short of 30pips from target. Yes,yes i didnt follow my plan, was quite happy with carry trade but still, i exit. But there was also a risk of price falling further, as it turned out it went back up. Ah well, as long as i dont lose money, its fine.

In june now, for starters. Today's agenda:-

6/1 08:30 US April Personal Income
6/1 08:30 US April Core PCE m/m
6/1 08:30 US May Avg Earnings
6/1 08:30 US May Non-Farm Payrolls(one of the most important!)
6/1 08:30 US April Consumption
6/1 08:30 US May Unemployment Rate
6/1 10:00 US May Manufacturing ISM
6/1 10:00 US May University of Michigan Sentiment

Thats alot of data in one day, risky stuff especially for one with no idea of economy like me. I feel it is best not to open any trade plus its a friday. Oh no, weekends.....boring.

Re-cap:-
May result on demo was good, made 2k. And now expired. Been good for real account too, started last week with $300(min). Up $140. Hopefully thatll give me a nice start for June. Now let's see whats out there....Engage!